Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH052023 221220 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -14.20     92.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   130.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   130.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     96.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     85.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     95.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.5  15.1  15.1  14.6  17.3  19.8  21.5  16.7  N  F  F  F  F  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   16.0  16.0  15.0  20.0  27.0  32.0  35.0  34.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         -7.3  -7.3  -4.0  -2.3   1.2   8.5  16.5  25.1 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -29.0 -35.0 -40.0 -22.0   0.0  -8.0   2.0   0.0 VU VU VU VU  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   47.0  49.0  47.0  48.0  47.0  52.0  57.0  63.0 VU  U VU  U VU  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -6.0  -5.0  -4.0  -5.0  -3.0  -6.0  -6.0  N  F  F  F  F  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.42

 SH052023 221220 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -14.20     92.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   130.