Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH052023 221221 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -14.10     91.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   130.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   130.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     87.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     76.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     86.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.8  15.1  14.0  13.5  13.4  19.2  12.6  15.8  F  F  F  F  F  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   20.0  16.0  16.0  17.0  24.0  28.0  31.0  30.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         -5.7  -5.7  -4.0  -2.3   6.6   8.5  12.4  18.6 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -9.0 -16.0 -26.0 -22.0 -19.0 -20.0 -15.0  32.0  U  U VU VU  U VU  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   50.0  47.0  46.0  43.0  45.0  47.0  49.0  54.0  U VU VU VU VU VU  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -1.0  -2.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.46

 SH052023 221221 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -14.10     91.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   130.