Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH052023 221221 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -13.90     90.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   130.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   130.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     97.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     88.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     90.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.8  23.3  25.2  28.5  24.2  21.9  22.0  25.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   24.0  26.0  27.0  30.0  35.0  39.0  39.0  38.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         -2.3  -0.6   1.2   1.2   8.5  20.7  29.6  29.6 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -43.0 -34.0 -21.0 -32.0 -26.0   7.0  21.0  64.0 VU VU VU VU VU  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   46.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  53.0  57.0  60.0  59.0 VU VU VU VU  U  U  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0  -2.0   1.0   3.0  -2.0   1.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.68

 SH052023 221221 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -13.90     90.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   130.