Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH052023 221221 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -13.80     89.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   130.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   130.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     96.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     87.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     99.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.9  26.3  24.2  22.5  22.7  20.2  23.0  37.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   26.0  29.0  30.0  33.0  37.0  39.0  38.0  34.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         -0.6   1.2   1.2   4.8  14.4  25.1  27.3  22.9 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -23.0 -13.0 -15.0 -36.0   7.0  44.0  67.0  71.0 VU  U  U VU  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   47.0  49.0  47.0  47.0  49.0  50.0  57.0  55.0 VU  U VU VU  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -4.0   0.0  -2.0  -4.0  -6.0  -5.0  -4.0  N  F  N  N  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.78

 SH052023 221221 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -13.80     89.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   130.