Rapid Intensification Guidance SH052023 221221 18UTC Storm Located at : -13.20 89.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 130. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 130.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 78.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 71.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 81.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 23.1 26.7 25.0 22.0 17.9 12.8 21.2 23.6 N N N N F F N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 32.0 33.0 36.0 39.0 43.0 38.0 34.0 28.0 U U U U N U U U Potential [kt] 3.0 4.8 8.5 12.4 18.6 27.3 29.6 18.6 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -23.0 -6.0 0.0 0.0 23.0 19.0 59.0 7.0 VU U U U U U N U Humidity 700-500 hPa 47.0 46.0 52.0 50.0 52.0 54.0 50.0 46.0 VU VU U U U U U VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 -3.0 -1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -3.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.06 SH052023 221221 18UTC Storm Located at : -13.20 89.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 130.