Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH052023 221222 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -13.20     88.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   130.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   130.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     92.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     82.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     83.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.0  25.2  20.9  20.5  18.8  32.6  40.0  53.8  N  N  N  N  N  U  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   33.0  36.0  38.0  41.0  43.0  43.0  35.0  26.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]          3.0   6.6  10.5  14.4  18.6  20.7  18.6  10.5 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     0.0  -2.0  11.0   9.0  32.0  59.0  49.0 -38.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  52.0  57.0  55.0  63.0  60.0  59.0  61.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -1.0  -6.0  -8.0  -5.0  -8.0  -4.0 -12.0  N  N  F  F  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.14

 SH052023 221222 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -13.20     88.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   130.