Rapid Intensification Guidance SH052023 221222 12UTC Storm Located at : -12.90 86.40 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 105. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 105.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -15.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 97.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 88.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 94.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 22.3 20.8 21.0 18.0 33.5 45.7 60.9 57.3 N N N F U VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 40.0 41.0 43.0 43.0 43.0 39.0 31.0 21.0 N N N N N U U U Potential [kt] 37.4 41.5 43.6 45.7 47.9 47.9 39.4 28.0 U U U U U U U VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 4.0 -3.0 -6.0 33.0 68.0 34.0 -39.0 37.0 U U U N N N VU N Humidity 700-500 hPa 53.0 52.0 56.0 56.0 55.0 54.0 61.0 58.0 U U U U U U N U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -3.0 -6.0 -7.0 -5.0 -11.0 -4.0 -11.0 -14.0 N F F F F F F VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.3% 0.4% 0.3% 25kt / 24h 0.5% 1.1% 0.8% 30kt / 24h 0.3% 0.7% 0.5% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.54 SH052023 221222 12UTC Storm Located at : -12.90 86.40 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 105. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 105.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -15.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 94.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 22.3 20.8 21.0 18.0 33.5 45.7 60.9 57.3 N N N N F VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 53.0 52.0 56.0 56.0 55.0 54.0 61.0 58.0 F F F F F F N F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -3.0 -6.0 -7.0 -5.0 -11.0 -4.0 -11.0 -14.0 N U U U U U U VU Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 6.6% 3.3%