Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH052023 221222 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -12.80     86.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   100.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     95.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     90.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     94.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.6  26.1  21.1  14.1  25.4  26.8  27.3  27.5  N  N  N  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   41.0  43.0  43.0  43.0  35.0  30.0  18.0  12.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         44.4  46.5  46.5  48.6  50.7  46.5  33.0  26.0  U  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    25.0  33.0  19.0  17.0  36.0  35.0  54.0  39.0  U  N  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   50.0  53.0  50.0  50.0  54.0  56.0  53.0  53.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0   0.0  -2.0  -1.0   0.0  -2.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.5%        0.6%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        1.8%        1.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        1.2%        0.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        0.9%        0.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.54

 SH052023 221222 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -12.80     86.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   100.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     94.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.6  26.1  21.1  14.1  25.4  26.8  27.3  27.5  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   50.0  53.0  50.0  50.0  54.0  56.0  53.0  53.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0   0.0  -2.0  -1.0   0.0  -2.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        4.6%        2.3%