Rapid Intensification Guidance SH052023 221223 00UTC Storm Located at : -12.60 85.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 90. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 90.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -15.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 100.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 99.00 VF IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 106.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 25.5 21.9 21.7 34.3 44.6 47.3 43.6 52.9 N N N U VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 45.0 46.0 46.0 46.0 40.0 30.0 15.0 1.0 N N N N N U U U Potential [kt] 56.5 58.6 58.6 58.6 56.5 52.4 48.5 37.7 U U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 7.0 6.0 40.0 48.0 58.0 -18.0 25.0 -8.0 U U N N N U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 59.0 60.0 62.0 65.0 69.0 70.0 67.0 66.0 U N N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -5.0 -1.0 -3.0 -6.0 2.0 0.0 -2.0 -23.0 F N N F N N N VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 1.0% 1.1% 1.0% 25kt / 24h 0.6% 2.7% 1.7% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 1.7% 1.0% 35kt / 24h 0.2% 1.5% 0.9% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 1.3% 0.6% 45kt / 36h 1.2% 0.6% 0.9% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.64 SH052023 221223 00UTC Storm Located at : -12.60 85.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 90. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 90.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -15.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 106.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 25.5 21.9 21.7 34.3 44.6 47.3 43.6 52.9 N N N F VF VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 59.0 60.0 62.0 65.0 69.0 70.0 67.0 66.0 F N N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -5.0 -1.0 -3.0 -6.0 2.0 0.0 -2.0 -23.0 U N N U N N N VU Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 2.3% 1.2%