Rapid Intensification Guidance SH052023 221223 18UTC Storm Located at : -12.30 83.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 125. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 125.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 5.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 100.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 92.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 108.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 10.6 14.6 27.5 42.0 35.3 25.1 21.4 23.6 F F N VU U N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 46.0 46.0 44.0 40.0 26.0 16.0 0.0 0.0 N N N N U U U U Potential [kt] 23.6 23.6 21.5 19.4 9.8 -0.7 -8.5 -12.8 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 48.0 69.0 53.0 61.0 64.0 50.0 44.0 14.0 N N N N N N N U Humidity 700-500 hPa 61.0 60.0 55.0 52.0 52.0 43.0 37.0 41.0 N N U U U VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 1.0 0.0 -1.0 -4.0 -3.0 -4.0 -4.0 -3.0 N N N F N F F N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 22.7% 0.0% 11.4% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.64 SH052023 221223 18UTC Storm Located at : -12.30 83.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 125. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 125.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 5.00 F TC SIZE [%] 108.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 10.6 14.6 27.5 42.0 35.3 25.1 21.4 23.6 U U N VF F N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 61.0 60.0 55.0 52.0 52.0 43.0 37.0 41.0 N N F F F VF VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 1.0 0.0 -1.0 -4.0 -3.0 -4.0 -4.0 -3.0 N N N U N U U N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 3.8% 1.9%