Rapid Intensification Guidance SH052023 221224 00UTC Storm Located at : -12.40 83.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 115. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 115.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -15.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 9.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 99.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 88.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 100.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 20.9 35.1 46.9 47.7 37.6 36.9 47.0 41.4 N U VU VU U U VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 44.0 44.0 35.0 24.0 8.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N N U U U U U U Potential [kt] 31.5 29.4 27.4 25.5 19.8 4.6 -7.0 -14.5 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 91.0 49.0 32.0 4.0 32.0 4.0 24.0 5.0 F N N U N U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 72.0 64.0 64.0 62.0 59.0 55.0 53.0 50.0 N N N N U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 1.0 5.0 -3.0 -8.0 -5.0 -22.0 -50.0 -68.0 N N N F F VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 25kt / 24h 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.50 SH052023 221224 00UTC Storm Located at : -12.40 83.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 115. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 115.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -15.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 9.40 F TC SIZE [%] 100.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 20.9 35.1 46.9 47.7 37.6 36.9 47.0 41.4 N F VF VF F F VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 72.0 64.0 64.0 62.0 59.0 55.0 53.0 50.0 N N N N F F F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 1.0 5.0 -3.0 -8.0 -5.0 -22.0 -50.0 -68.0 N N N U U VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 27.5% 13.7%