Rapid Intensification Guidance SH052023 221224 06UTC Storm Located at : -12.50 83.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 90. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 90.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -25.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 8.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 90.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 78.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 107.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 28.7 39.7 38.4 34.9 32.6 29.1 31.2 27.7 N U U U U N U N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 44.0 40.0 35.0 25.0 14.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 N N U U U U U U Potential [kt] 58.6 56.5 52.4 50.5 44.8 34.3 22.2 12.9 U U U U U VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 81.0 64.0 39.0 51.0 37.0 35.0 -2.0 14.0 N N N N N N U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 56.0 55.0 55.0 54.0 48.0 42.0 46.0 47.0 U U U U U VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -4.0 -6.0 -5.0 -7.0 -8.0 -6.0 -2.0 -22.0 F F F F F F N VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.5% 0.4% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.56 SH052023 221224 06UTC Storm Located at : -12.50 83.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 90. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 90.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -25.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 8.60 F TC SIZE [%] 107.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 28.7 39.7 38.4 34.9 32.6 29.1 31.2 27.7 N F F F F N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 56.0 55.0 55.0 54.0 48.0 42.0 46.0 47.0 F F F F F VF VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -4.0 -6.0 -5.0 -7.0 -8.0 -6.0 -2.0 -22.0 U U U U U U N VU Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 8.3% 4.1%