Rapid Intensification Guidance SH052023 221224 18UTC Storm Located at : -13.60 84.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 95. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 95.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 9.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 92.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 63.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 97.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 37.7 38.6 33.5 33.1 32.4 38.5 39.4 36.6 U U U U U U U U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 29.0 24.0 19.0 8.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 47.4 45.5 45.5 39.8 31.0 20.0 11.7 10.4 U U U U VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 8.0 14.0 15.0 32.0 37.0 2.0 -3.0 24.0 U U U N N U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 63.0 62.0 60.0 57.0 53.0 52.0 53.0 57.0 N N N U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 -4.0 0.0 1.0 13.0 33.0 42.0 35.0 N F N N U VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.9% 0.4% 0.7% 25kt / 24h 0.5% 0.7% 0.6% 30kt / 24h 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 35kt / 24h 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.28 SH052023 221224 18UTC Storm Located at : -13.60 84.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 95.