Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH052023 221225 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -14.50     84.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     98.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     64.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     96.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        39.2  36.3  32.3  30.2  28.7  28.7  22.9  25.7  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   24.0  13.0   8.0   8.0   2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         50.5  48.5  46.6  43.0  36.0  22.2  14.2  10.5  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    47.0  50.0  52.0  33.0  29.0   5.0  23.0   7.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  60.0  58.0  57.0  54.0  53.0  49.0  52.0  U  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0  -1.0   0.0   1.0   2.0  -6.0 -13.0 -18.0  F  N  N  N  N  F VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.0%        0.5%        0.7%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        1.0%        0.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.5%        0.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.16

 SH052023 221225 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -14.50     84.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.