Rapid Intensification Guidance SH052023 221225 06UTC Storm Located at : -15.10 84.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 80. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 80.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -15.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 8.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 91.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 77.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 107.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 30.9 31.7 30.3 31.9 31.1 29.3 28.1 27.5 U U N U U N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 19.0 14.0 8.0 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 58.5 54.8 51.2 47.7 36.5 30.8 26.7 18.2 U U U U U VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 38.0 29.0 23.0 34.0 -11.0 -6.0 28.0 -20.0 N N U N U U U VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 56.0 54.0 48.0 43.0 42.0 41.0 43.0 41.0 U U U VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 0.0 3.0 6.0 14.0 -6.0 -13.0 -9.0 N N N N U F VF F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.3% 0.4% 0.3% 25kt / 24h 0.3% 0.8% 0.5% 30kt / 24h 0.3% 0.4% 0.4% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.98 SH052023 221225 06UTC Storm Located at : -15.10 84.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 80.