Rapid Intensification Guidance SH052023 221225 12UTC Storm Located at : -15.90 85.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 90. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 90.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 8.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 95.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 84.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 111.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 30.9 24.0 24.5 23.5 26.9 26.4 25.6 26.3 U N N N N N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 8.0 8.0 2.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 43.0 39.4 34.3 29.6 19.4 20.8 12.9 8.2 U U VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 59.0 53.0 30.0 24.0 9.0 10.0 -2.0 23.0 N N N U U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 53.0 47.0 42.0 43.0 44.0 42.0 45.0 43.0 U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -8.0 -5.0 -9.0 -8.0 -7.0 -16.0 -17.0 -6.0 F F F F F VF VF F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 7.3% 2.0% 4.7% 25kt / 24h 1.4% 2.8% 2.1% 30kt / 24h 1.0% 1.5% 1.3% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.64 SH052023 221225 12UTC Storm Located at : -15.90 85.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 90.