Rapid Intensification Guidance SH052023 221226 00UTC Storm Located at : -16.50 85.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 110. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 110.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 20.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 8.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 99.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 96.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 101.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 27.9 25.2 24.6 25.7 30.3 29.6 30.4 30.3 N N N N N N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 2.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 17.7 12.7 6.5 2.2 2.2 -5.8 -13.0 -11.8 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 39.0 27.0 10.0 1.0 17.0 -1.0 5.0 8.0 N U U U U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 50.0 48.0 49.0 49.0 52.0 59.0 56.0 52.0 U U U U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -12.0 -7.0 -11.0 -6.0 -27.0 -42.0 -19.0 -30.0 F F F F VF VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.28 SH052023 221226 00UTC Storm Located at : -16.50 85.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 110.