Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH052023 221226 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.50     85.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   115.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     90.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     73.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    102.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.7  26.5  28.6  25.7  30.2  26.4  26.0  28.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    9.0   3.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         11.0   6.1  -1.4  -2.8  -2.8 -16.8 -15.7 -14.5 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    23.0   3.0  -2.0   9.0  20.0   3.0   4.0  29.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  51.0  51.0  51.0  51.0  47.0  49.0  48.0  U  U  U  U  U VU  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -8.0  -8.0   2.0 -29.0 -44.0 -26.0 -36.0 -29.0  F  F  N VF VF VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.18

 SH052023 221226 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.50     85.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.