Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH052023 221226 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.10     84.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   105.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   105.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     51.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      5.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     90.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.2  27.9  32.0  27.7  23.3  23.0  25.7  33.5  N  N  U  N  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]          5.8   0.4   1.7   3.0 -11.2  -6.8  -6.8  -6.8 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    14.0   7.0  28.0  31.0  30.0  28.0  24.0  50.0  U  U  U  N  N  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   50.0  52.0  53.0  52.0  54.0  49.0  50.0  51.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -21.0 -20.0 -23.0 -22.0 -20.0 -14.0  -9.0 -14.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF  F VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.46

 SH052023 221226 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.10     84.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   105.