Rapid Intensification Guidance SH052023 221227 06UTC Storm Located at : -18.00 82.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 90. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 90.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -15.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 42.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 17.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 8.20 F TC SIZE [%] 67.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 30.7 32.5 29.3 31.4 27.0 27.0 29.6 30.2 U U N U N N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 16.7 18.0 12.9 5.9 8.2 9.3 9.3 7.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 4.0 12.0 19.0 25.0 18.0 33.0 45.0 69.0 U U U U U N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 51.0 49.0 51.0 51.0 47.0 46.0 44.0 42.0 U U U U VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -25.0 -26.0 -22.0 -26.0 -21.0 -6.0 -4.0 -12.0 VF VF VF VF VF F F F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 24.98 SH052023 221227 06UTC Storm Located at : -18.00 82.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 90.