Rapid Intensification Guidance SH052023 221227 12UTC Storm Located at : -18.70 81.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 80. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 80.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -15.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 72.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 26.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 86.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 30.9 26.5 28.1 27.1 26.1 25.4 31.2 35.9 U N N N N N U U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 28.0 24.2 18.2 17.0 19.3 20.5 19.3 11.7 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 43.0 6.0 -3.0 27.0 2.0 49.0 32.0 57.0 N U U U U N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 51.0 53.0 53.0 49.0 51.0 45.0 47.0 42.0 U U U U U VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -44.0 -26.0 -20.0 -18.0 -15.0 -18.0 -13.0 -8.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 24.86 SH052023 221227 12UTC Storm Located at : -18.70 81.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 80.