Rapid Intensification Guidance SH052023 221227 18UTC Storm Located at : -19.00 80.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 70. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 70.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -20.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 32.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 1.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 8.30 F TC SIZE [%] 87.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 25.9 31.1 28.0 29.6 25.0 34.1 38.7 50.6 N U N N N U U VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 32.9 29.3 28.2 29.3 29.3 28.2 29.3 19.7 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 24.0 12.0 25.0 28.0 20.0 31.0 41.0 39.0 U U U U U N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 53.0 52.0 50.0 48.0 46.0 46.0 44.0 42.0 U U U U VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -13.0 -9.0 -6.0 -4.0 -7.0 -8.0 -8.0 -2.0 VF F F F F F F N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 24.76 SH052023 221227 18UTC Storm Located at : -19.00 80.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 70.