Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH072023 230106 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -19.90    153.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     92.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     73.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    152.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.2  25.1  27.8  32.1  30.3  30.3  30.3  30.3  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   27.0  24.0  16.0  10.0   2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        129.3 122.3 122.3 120.1 122.3 122.3 122.3 122.3  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    87.0  69.0  84.0  85.0  54.0  54.0  54.0  54.0  F  N  N  F  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  72.0  66.0  64.0  61.0  61.0  61.0  61.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  25.0  23.0  28.0  43.0  51.0  51.0  51.0  51.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.9%        4.0%        3.0%
 25kt / 24h       10.9%       26.1%       18.5%
 30kt / 24h        3.3%       13.1%        8.2%
 35kt / 24h        3.3%       13.1%        8.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.2%       11.7%        6.0%
 45kt / 36h        2.5%       24.3%       13.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        9.5%        4.8%
 55kt / 48h        2.7%        7.3%        5.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.2%        2.1%        1.2%
 65kt / 72h        1.5%        2.3%        1.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.30

 SH072023 230106 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -19.90    153.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    152.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.2  25.1  27.8  32.1  30.3  30.3  30.3  30.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  72.0  66.0  64.0  61.0  61.0  61.0  61.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  25.0  23.0  28.0  43.0  51.0  51.0  51.0  51.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        9.5%        0.0%        4.8%