Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH072023 230107 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -20.50    155.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     79.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     63.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    133.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.1  30.0  32.9  33.4  25.4  25.4  25.4  25.4  N  N  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   18.0  10.0   7.0   2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        115.1 115.1 110.7 112.9  98.5  98.5  98.5  98.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    93.0  93.0  80.0  85.0  61.0  61.0  61.0  61.0  F  F  N  F  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  66.0  63.0  64.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  13.0  28.0  25.0  41.0  39.0  39.0  39.0  39.0  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.0%        2.8%        2.9%
 25kt / 24h        8.2%       16.0%       12.1%
 30kt / 24h        2.7%        6.8%        4.7%
 35kt / 24h        2.5%        6.8%        4.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.5%        6.3%        3.4%
 45kt / 36h        2.1%       17.3%        9.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        6.1%        3.1%
 55kt / 48h        1.3%        3.4%        2.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.3%        1.7%        1.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.8%        1.8%        1.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.96

 SH072023 230107 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -20.50    155.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    133.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.1  30.0  32.9  33.4  25.4  25.4  25.4  25.4  N  N  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  66.0  63.0  64.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  13.0  28.0  25.0  41.0  39.0  39.0  39.0  39.0  F VF VF VF VF VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        5.4%        0.1%        2.7%