Rapid Intensification Guidance SH102023 230121 12UTC Storm Located at : -22.20 163.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 0.50 F TC SIZE [%] 86.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 42.2 40.0 36.4 44.2 52.8 67.8 62.3 61.4 VU U U VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 97.7 92.7 88.0 83.6 76.7 70.5 68.2 68.2 N N N N U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 37.0 32.0 28.0 38.0 56.0 46.0 31.0 15.0 N N U N N N N U Humidity 700-500 hPa 52.0 50.0 52.0 49.0 48.0 47.0 47.0 45.0 U U U U U VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -13.0 -15.0 -10.0 -13.0 -17.0 -17.0 -6.0 -7.0 VF VF F VF VF VF F F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.28 SH102023 230121 12UTC Storm Located at : -22.20 163.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30.