Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH102023 230121 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -22.60    163.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     73.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        38.8  36.0  46.4  52.0  57.1  57.0  61.8  62.3  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         91.1  88.0  85.0  82.2  79.4  74.2  71.7  70.5  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    38.0  48.0  60.0  77.0  22.0   0.0  21.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   46.0  50.0  49.0  49.0  39.0  36.0  34.0  41.0 VU  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -17.0 -16.0 -19.0 -13.0  -6.0  -4.0   2.0  -3.0 VF VF VF VF  F  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.02

 SH102023 230121 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -22.60    163.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.