Rapid Intensification Guidance SH102023 230122 00UTC Storm Located at : -23.60 164.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 7.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 0.00 F TC SIZE [%] 70.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 43.8 53.2 53.9 59.5 73.7 70.1 70.0 67.8 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 83.6 80.8 78.0 71.7 65.9 65.9 70.5 69.3 N N N U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 49.0 58.0 86.0 57.0 19.0 -7.0 3.0 32.0 N N F N U U U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 49.0 47.0 49.0 44.0 38.0 37.0 36.0 46.0 U VU U VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -17.0 -20.0 -15.0 -15.0 -10.0 -3.0 -1.0 -8.0 VF VF VF VF F N N F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 25.42 SH102023 230122 00UTC Storm Located at : -23.60 164.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30.