Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH112023 230206 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -12.20    118.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     80.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     66.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    114.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.4  16.0  17.7  20.8  26.8  37.1  40.1  40.6  F  F  F  N  N  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   65.0  65.0  64.0  62.0  59.0  52.0  46.0  40.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    56.0  30.0  41.0  55.0  44.0   2.0   1.0  15.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  74.0  72.0  70.0  71.0  73.0  71.0  64.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -2.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        9.8%       16.6%       13.2%
 25kt / 24h       39.5%       66.1%       52.8%
 30kt / 24h       21.1%       52.1%       36.6%
 35kt / 24h       16.1%       52.1%       34.1%
 40kt / 24h        6.3%       50.1%       28.2%
 45kt / 36h       25.6%       69.9%       47.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       52.5%       26.3%
 55kt / 48h       25.0%       33.2%       29.1%
 70kt / 48h        8.8%       27.2%       18.0%
 65kt / 72h        8.4%       23.6%       16.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.42

 SH112023 230206 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -12.20    118.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    114.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.4  16.0  17.7  20.8  26.8  37.1  40.1  40.6  N  U  N  N  N  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  74.0  72.0  70.0  71.0  73.0  71.0  64.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -2.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%