Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH112023 230206 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -12.60    118.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     73.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     58.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    101.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.3  15.9  20.2  24.6  28.8  34.3  30.8  30.7  F  F  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   65.0  65.0  65.0  66.0  65.0  58.0  46.0  37.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    54.0  54.0  47.0  26.0  42.0  12.0   3.0   2.0  N  N  N  U  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  67.0  67.0  65.0  62.0  58.0  59.0  56.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0   0.0   1.0   0.0  -6.0  -7.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       27.8%       31.7%       29.8%
 25kt / 24h       55.9%       74.3%       65.1%
 30kt / 24h       40.5%       65.2%       52.9%
 35kt / 24h       31.2%       65.2%       48.2%
 40kt / 24h       23.7%       63.9%       43.8%
 45kt / 36h       38.7%       72.2%       55.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       55.7%       27.9%
 55kt / 48h       27.9%       36.1%       32.0%
 70kt / 48h       14.0%       27.6%       20.8%
 65kt / 72h       16.7%       28.5%       22.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.52

 SH112023 230206 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -12.60    118.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    101.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.3  15.9  20.2  24.6  28.8  34.3  30.8  30.7  U  U  N  N  N  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  67.0  67.0  65.0  62.0  58.0  59.0  56.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0   0.0   1.0   0.0  -6.0  -7.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%