Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH112023 230207 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -14.60    116.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    25.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     83.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     70.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     84.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.3  31.7  39.6  38.7  36.7  30.4  25.7  19.6  N  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   57.0  51.0  49.0  44.0  34.0  21.0  16.0  14.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  65.1  60.7  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    32.0  48.0  50.0  25.0 -10.0  -3.0  20.0  -5.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  61.0  62.0  58.0  59.0  56.0  55.0  49.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0  -2.0  -1.0  -3.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       65.8%       29.6%       47.7%
 25kt / 24h       38.8%       36.4%       37.6%
 30kt / 24h       35.7%       30.2%       33.0%
 35kt / 24h       35.7%       30.2%       33.0%
 40kt / 24h       35.7%       28.3%       32.0%
 45kt / 36h       32.6%       13.5%       23.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        5.2%        2.6%
 55kt / 48h        0.8%        2.5%        1.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.76

 SH112023 230207 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -14.60    116.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    25.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     84.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.3  31.7  39.6  38.7  36.7  30.4  25.7  19.6  N  N  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  61.0  62.0  58.0  59.0  56.0  55.0  49.0  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0  -2.0  -1.0  -3.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        1.4%        0.7%