Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH112023 230208 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.30    113.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    95.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    95.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     69.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     59.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     75.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        40.3  43.1  45.8  44.0  38.2  39.6  31.7  29.3  U VU VU VU  U  U  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   46.0  40.0  38.0  28.0  19.0  15.0   6.0   1.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  62.3  55.7  38.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -16.0  -5.0 -11.0  25.0   9.0 -17.0 -18.0 -11.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  61.0  61.0  57.0  53.0  53.0  50.0  48.0  U  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0   0.0  -1.0  -1.0   2.0   1.0 -12.0 -16.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  F VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.7%        1.1%        2.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        1.8%        1.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.6%        0.8%        0.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.6%        0.7%        0.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.6%        0.7%        0.6%
 45kt / 36h        1.6%        0.4%        1.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.52

 SH112023 230208 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.30    113.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    95.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    95.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     75.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        40.3  43.1  45.8  44.0  38.2  39.6  31.7  29.3  F VF VF VF  F  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  61.0  61.0  57.0  53.0  53.0  50.0  48.0  F  N  N  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0   0.0  -1.0  -1.0   2.0   1.0 -12.0 -16.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  U VU


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.2%       14.8%        7.5%