Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH112023 230208 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.00    113.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     55.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     46.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     74.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        36.8  39.5  39.8  37.8  38.4  39.4  40.4  39.2  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   43.0  38.0  35.0  30.0  27.0  25.0  20.0  15.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  74.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -7.0 -16.0  33.0  21.0 -10.0  -5.0  -1.0   2.0  U  U  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  62.0  61.0  59.0  59.0  60.0  57.0  56.0  U  N  N  U  U  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -6.0  -4.0   1.0   2.0   0.0  -9.0 -14.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  F VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.5%        1.1%        1.8%
 25kt / 24h        0.8%        2.6%        1.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.8%        1.2%        1.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.8%        1.2%        1.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.8%        1.2%        1.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.8%        0.5%        0.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.48

 SH112023 230208 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.00    113.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     74.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        36.8  39.5  39.8  37.8  38.4  39.4  40.4  39.2  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  62.0  61.0  59.0  59.0  60.0  57.0  56.0  F  N  N  F  F  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -6.0  -4.0   1.0   2.0   0.0  -9.0 -14.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  U VU


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.1%        4.8%        2.5%