Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH112023 230208 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.30    112.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     57.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     54.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     76.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.5  37.2  33.2  34.4  37.4  34.7  40.6  37.7  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   40.0  35.0  32.0  30.0  26.0  22.0  15.0  12.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  82.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    14.0  55.0  14.0   6.0  18.0  -1.0 -16.0   7.0  U  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  61.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  58.0  57.0  53.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -12.0  -5.0   0.0  -1.0   1.0  -6.0  -8.0 -12.0  F  F  N  N  N  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.9%        0.7%        0.8%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        3.1%        1.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.5%        1.5%        1.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.5%        1.4%        1.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.5%        1.4%        1.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        0.3%        0.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.58

 SH112023 230208 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.30    112.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     76.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.5  37.2  33.2  34.4  37.4  34.7  40.6  37.7  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  61.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  58.0  57.0  53.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -12.0  -5.0   0.0  -1.0   1.0  -6.0  -8.0 -12.0  U  U  N  N  N  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        2.3%        1.2%