Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH112023 230209 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.40    110.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     55.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     23.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     95.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.3  39.5  40.4  33.7  28.8  32.1  27.4  29.4  U  U  U  U  N  U  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   31.0  34.0  33.0  29.0  23.0  17.0   6.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0  90.7  82.4  76.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -28.0 -29.0 -20.0  -4.0  10.0   5.0 -19.0 -19.0 VU VU VU  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  60.0  59.0  59.0  56.0  50.0  48.0  47.0  U  N  U  U  U  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0  -6.0 -10.0  -1.0   1.0   2.0   1.0   0.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        0.6%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        2.6%        1.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        1.2%        0.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        1.0%        0.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.16

 SH112023 230209 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.40    110.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     95.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.3  39.5  40.4  33.7  28.8  32.1  27.4  29.4  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  60.0  59.0  59.0  56.0  50.0  48.0  47.0  F  N  F  F  F  F  F VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0  -6.0 -10.0  -1.0   1.0   2.0   1.0   0.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%