Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH112023 230209 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.40    109.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     36.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     31.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     79.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.5  36.8  40.4  32.3  35.8  38.4  36.8  38.3  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   31.0  31.0  34.0  33.0  25.0  23.0  23.0  12.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 100.1  91.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     4.0   8.0  19.0  -2.0 -26.0 -16.0  21.0   0.0  U  U  U  U VU  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  63.0  59.0  58.0  55.0  52.0  51.0  48.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   2.0   2.0  -5.0  -8.0   0.0  -7.0  -6.0  N  N  N  F  F  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        0.5%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        2.3%        1.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.9%        0.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.6%        0.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.14

 SH112023 230209 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.40    109.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     79.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.5  36.8  40.4  32.3  35.8  38.4  36.8  38.3  N  F  F  N  F  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  63.0  59.0  58.0  55.0  52.0  51.0  48.0  N  N  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   2.0   2.0  -5.0  -8.0   0.0  -7.0  -6.0  N  N  N  U  U  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%