Rapid Intensification Guidance SH112023 230209 18UTC Storm Located at : -15.40 108.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 52.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 46.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.60 F TC SIZE [%] 74.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 31.4 31.4 26.8 25.5 33.1 35.6 35.7 35.8 U U N N U U U U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 31.0 33.0 31.0 27.0 23.0 23.0 19.0 10.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 109.6 112.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 0.0 11.0 7.0 6.0 -14.0 4.0 22.0 19.0 U U U U U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 64.0 58.0 57.0 57.0 55.0 49.0 47.0 44.0 N U U U U U VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 -1.0 -5.0 -2.0 -1.0 -3.0 -6.0 -15.0 N N F N N N F VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.2% 0.7% 0.4% 25kt / 24h 0.6% 5.1% 2.9% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 2.3% 1.3% 35kt / 24h 0.2% 2.0% 1.1% 40kt / 24h 0.2% 2.0% 1.1% 45kt / 36h 0.3% 2.0% 1.1% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 1.3% 0.7% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.6% 0.3% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.42 SH112023 230209 18UTC Storm Located at : -15.40 108.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F TC SIZE [%] 74.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 31.4 31.4 26.8 25.5 33.1 35.6 35.7 35.8 N N N N F F F F Humidity 700-500 hPa 64.0 58.0 57.0 57.0 55.0 49.0 47.0 44.0 N F F F F F VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 -1.0 -5.0 -2.0 -1.0 -3.0 -6.0 -15.0 N N U N N N U VU Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1%