Rapid Intensification Guidance SH112023 230210 00UTC Storm Located at : -15.30 108.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 88.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 81.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.70 F TC SIZE [%] 81.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 27.9 25.2 22.3 23.0 27.9 28.9 35.4 35.5 N N N N N N U U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 35.0 34.0 32.0 27.0 19.0 19.0 12.0 10.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 104.6 102.3 102.3 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 8.0 -12.0 13.0 -7.0 -11.0 8.0 25.0 -2.0 U U U U U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 61.0 59.0 56.0 57.0 56.0 50.0 48.0 45.0 N U U U U U U VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -5.0 -7.0 -1.0 1.0 0.0 -3.0 -5.0 -3.0 F F N N N N F N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 8.1% 7.2% 7.7% 25kt / 24h 14.0% 33.3% 23.6% 30kt / 24h 9.8% 25.1% 17.4% 35kt / 24h 7.0% 25.1% 16.1% 40kt / 24h 6.5% 23.1% 14.8% 45kt / 36h 6.4% 19.6% 13.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 8.1% 4.0% 55kt / 48h 2.4% 8.6% 5.5% 70kt / 48h 0.1% 2.7% 1.4% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 2.9% 1.5% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.40 SH112023 230210 00UTC Storm Located at : -15.30 108.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F TC SIZE [%] 81.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 27.9 25.2 22.3 23.0 27.9 28.9 35.4 35.5 N N N N N N F F Humidity 700-500 hPa 61.0 59.0 56.0 57.0 56.0 50.0 48.0 45.0 N F F F F F F VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -5.0 -7.0 -1.0 1.0 0.0 -3.0 -5.0 -3.0 U U N N N N U N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%