Rapid Intensification Guidance SH112023 230210 06UTC Storm Located at : -15.10 107.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 70. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 70.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 88.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 55.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 95.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 25.0 23.4 29.5 28.5 27.8 27.7 36.2 37.7 N N N N N N U U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 32.0 23.0 19.0 19.0 14.0 10.0 7.0 5.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 95.0 95.0 95.0 87.3 82.9 78.6 72.4 66.6 N N N N N N U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 13.0 -8.0 -12.0 -5.0 -10.0 1.0 7.0 8.0 U U U U U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 54.0 55.0 57.0 53.0 50.0 47.0 46.0 42.0 U U U U U VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 6.0 5.0 2.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 -2.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 30.2% 22.8% 26.5% 25kt / 24h 27.1% 43.0% 35.1% 30kt / 24h 26.2% 40.5% 33.3% 35kt / 24h 26.2% 40.5% 33.3% 40kt / 24h 14.7% 37.9% 26.3% 45kt / 36h 9.0% 16.6% 12.8% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 7.1% 3.5% 55kt / 48h 0.5% 5.5% 3.0% 70kt / 48h 0.1% 1.5% 0.8% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.7% 0.3% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.84 SH112023 230210 06UTC Storm Located at : -15.10 107.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 70. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 70.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 95.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 25.0 23.4 29.5 28.5 27.8 27.7 36.2 37.7 N N N N N N F F Humidity 700-500 hPa 54.0 55.0 57.0 53.0 50.0 47.0 46.0 42.0 F F F F F VF VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 6.0 5.0 2.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 -2.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.3% 0.2%