Rapid Intensification Guidance SH112023 230210 12UTC Storm Located at : -14.80 106.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 70. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 70.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 83.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 66.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 87.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 18.1 22.6 28.9 26.0 30.6 33.7 32.8 36.3 F N N N U U U U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 31.0 29.0 28.0 23.0 20.0 10.0 6.0 10.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 95.0 95.0 95.0 95.0 85.1 82.9 76.5 64.8 N N N N N N U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 5.0 -20.0 -19.0 -4.0 6.0 18.0 19.0 -24.0 U VU U U U U U VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 57.0 55.0 56.0 52.0 46.0 45.0 41.0 35.0 U U U U VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -2.0 0.0 -1.0 -1.0 -7.0 -11.0 -13.0 -18.0 N N N N F F VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 12.1% 12.0% 12.1% 25kt / 24h 13.7% 29.7% 21.7% 30kt / 24h 12.1% 26.1% 19.1% 35kt / 24h 11.1% 26.1% 18.6% 40kt / 24h 7.2% 24.3% 15.8% 45kt / 36h 5.3% 7.7% 6.5% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 2.6% 1.3% 55kt / 48h 0.4% 3.4% 1.9% 70kt / 48h 0.1% 0.6% 0.3% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.6% 0.3% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.04 SH112023 230210 12UTC Storm Located at : -14.80 106.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 70. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 70.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 87.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 18.1 22.6 28.9 26.0 30.6 33.7 32.8 36.3 N N N N N F F F Humidity 700-500 hPa 57.0 55.0 56.0 52.0 46.0 45.0 41.0 35.0 F F F F VF VF VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -2.0 0.0 -1.0 -1.0 -7.0 -11.0 -13.0 -18.0 N N N N U U VU VU Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.3% 0.1%