Rapid Intensification Guidance SH112023 230210 18UTC Storm Located at : -14.60 105.40 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 75. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 75.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 86.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 72.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 82.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 23.9 27.3 27.6 28.5 30.9 28.8 30.2 31.1 N N N N U N N U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 29.0 28.0 28.0 23.0 18.0 10.0 8.0 10.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 90.0 90.0 90.0 89.3 84.6 75.7 65.5 69.4 N N N N N U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -25.0 -21.0 -23.0 -3.0 3.0 37.0 1.0 -11.0 VU VU VU U U N U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 56.0 56.0 53.0 51.0 48.0 43.0 38.0 34.0 U U U U U VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 1.0 0.0 0.0 -3.0 -11.0 -9.0 -11.0 -24.0 N N N N F F F VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 24.4% 18.3% 21.4% 25kt / 24h 20.1% 36.1% 28.1% 30kt / 24h 20.1% 35.1% 27.6% 35kt / 24h 20.1% 35.1% 27.6% 40kt / 24h 16.1% 32.8% 24.4% 45kt / 36h 9.2% 10.6% 9.9% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 4.0% 2.0% 55kt / 48h 0.6% 4.6% 2.6% 70kt / 48h 0.1% 0.9% 0.5% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.8% 0.4% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.88 SH112023 230210 18UTC Storm Located at : -14.60 105.40 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 75. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 75.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 82.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 23.9 27.3 27.6 28.5 30.9 28.8 30.2 31.1 N N N N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 56.0 56.0 53.0 51.0 48.0 43.0 38.0 34.0 F F F F F VF VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 1.0 0.0 0.0 -3.0 -11.0 -9.0 -11.0 -24.0 N N N N U U U VU Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.5% 0.2%