Rapid Intensification Guidance SH112023 230211 18UTC Storm Located at : -14.90 101.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 115. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 115.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 20.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 5.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 99.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 89.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 78.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 31.7 36.5 36.7 35.0 33.4 26.6 20.9 16.7 U U U U U N N F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 20.0 12.0 11.0 5.0 3.0 14.0 14.0 17.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 42.3 40.1 31.5 29.4 18.0 29.4 23.5 21.6 U U VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 19.0 41.0 35.0 34.0 -5.0 3.0 8.0 2.0 U N N N U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 50.0 47.0 43.0 40.0 36.0 37.0 34.0 33.0 U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 -2.0 -6.0 -13.0 -18.0 -17.0 -20.0 -20.0 N N F VF VF VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 24.3% 4.9% 14.6% 25kt / 24h 3.7% 3.7% 3.7% 30kt / 24h 3.1% 1.9% 2.5% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.90 SH112023 230211 18UTC Storm Located at : -14.90 101.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 115. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 115.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 20.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 5.40 F TC SIZE [%] 78.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 31.7 36.5 36.7 35.0 33.4 26.6 20.9 16.7 N F F F F N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 50.0 47.0 43.0 40.0 36.0 37.0 34.0 33.0 F VF VF VF VF VF VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 -2.0 -6.0 -13.0 -18.0 -17.0 -20.0 -20.0 N N U VU VU VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.5% 17.4% 9.0%