Rapid Intensification Guidance SH112023 230212 00UTC Storm Located at : -15.00 101.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 115. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 115.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 99.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 91.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 82.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 34.1 33.8 33.5 30.6 31.5 23.9 24.5 21.6 U U U U U N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 20.0 13.0 11.0 6.0 2.0 12.0 15.0 19.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 42.3 40.1 31.5 29.4 18.0 29.4 25.5 23.5 U U VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 38.0 31.0 32.0 -12.0 0.0 -20.0 13.0 -2.0 N N N U U VU U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 49.0 48.0 46.0 42.0 38.0 38.0 38.0 38.0 U U VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -2.0 -4.0 -8.0 -11.0 -17.0 -23.0 -23.0 -11.0 N F F F VF VF VF F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 11.1% 2.3% 6.7% 25kt / 24h 1.1% 2.2% 1.7% 30kt / 24h 0.9% 1.2% 1.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.86 SH112023 230212 00UTC Storm Located at : -15.00 101.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 115. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 115.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 82.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 34.1 33.8 33.5 30.6 31.5 23.9 24.5 21.6 F F F N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 49.0 48.0 46.0 42.0 38.0 38.0 38.0 38.0 F F VF VF VF VF VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -2.0 -4.0 -8.0 -11.0 -17.0 -23.0 -23.0 -11.0 N U U U VU VU VU U Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.4% 18.7% 9.5%