Rapid Intensification Guidance SH112023 230212 06UTC Storm Located at : -15.10 100.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 105. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 105.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 3.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 88.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 83.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 82.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 34.3 32.5 30.4 35.2 24.5 24.0 23.3 22.1 U U N U N N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 12.0 11.0 7.0 9.0 10.0 24.0 27.0 28.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 45.7 37.4 35.5 28.0 33.5 39.4 28.0 29.8 U U U VU VU U VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 42.0 19.0 6.0 6.0 14.0 20.0 -8.0 8.0 N U U U U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 46.0 43.0 41.0 40.0 35.0 37.0 43.0 45.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -2.0 -4.0 -7.0 -8.0 -11.0 -11.0 -3.0 3.0 N F F F F F N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.4% 0.3% 0.4% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.4% 0.3% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.50 SH112023 230212 06UTC Storm Located at : -15.10 100.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 105. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 105.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 3.40 F TC SIZE [%] 82.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 34.3 32.5 30.4 35.2 24.5 24.0 23.3 22.1 F N N F N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 46.0 43.0 41.0 40.0 35.0 37.0 43.0 45.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -2.0 -4.0 -7.0 -8.0 -11.0 -11.0 -3.0 3.0 N U U U U U N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.6% 23.1% 11.8%