Rapid Intensification Guidance SH112023 230212 12UTC Storm Located at : -15.10 99.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 100. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 100.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 3.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 67.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 56.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 74.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 35.3 38.8 39.6 38.0 25.8 33.4 27.6 21.1 U U U U N U N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 17.0 12.0 15.0 17.0 28.0 35.0 40.0 48.0 U U U U U U N N Potential [kt] 46.5 44.4 38.5 33.0 46.5 44.4 40.5 48.6 U U U VU U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 19.0 -7.0 -15.0 -33.0 0.0 6.0 -4.0 27.0 U U U VU U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 50.0 45.0 43.0 43.0 40.0 46.0 51.0 57.0 U VU VU VU VU VU U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 -1.0 -1.0 0.0 0.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.42 SH112023 230212 12UTC Storm Located at : -15.10 99.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 100.