Rapid Intensification Guidance SH112023 230212 18UTC Storm Located at : -15.00 97.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 100. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 100.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 4.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 64.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 54.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 8.40 F TC SIZE [%] 60.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 32.3 35.8 33.3 26.7 22.9 20.9 24.8 22.4 U U U N N N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 17.0 15.0 16.0 18.0 25.0 30.0 33.0 41.0 U U U U U U U N Potential [kt] 44.4 40.5 36.6 38.5 52.9 42.4 42.4 50.7 U U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 9.0 -15.0 5.0 -15.0 16.0 11.0 -7.0 5.0 U U U U U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 42.0 42.0 38.0 38.0 37.0 38.0 44.0 47.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -4.0 -3.0 -7.0 -2.0 -10.0 -4.0 -3.0 6.0 F N F N F F N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.8% 0.3% 0.6% 25kt / 24h 0.3% 0.4% 0.4% 30kt / 24h 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.34 SH112023 230212 18UTC Storm Located at : -15.00 97.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 100.