Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH112023 230213 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.10     96.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   100.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     53.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     41.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     58.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.6  35.4  30.5  25.6  21.4  20.9  28.4  25.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   19.0  16.0  18.0  22.0  28.0  32.0  35.0  42.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Potential [kt]         42.4  36.6  36.6  46.5  46.5  38.5  44.4  46.5  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    15.0  10.0  -4.0   8.0  37.0 -10.0   5.0  -2.0  U  U  U  U  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   42.0  39.0  38.0  40.0  41.0  42.0  39.0  45.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -3.0   0.0  -5.0  -6.0   2.0   6.0   7.0  N  N  N  F  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.5%        0.4%        0.9%
 25kt / 24h        0.3%        0.6%        0.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.3%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.34

 SH112023 230213 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.10     96.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.