Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH112023 230213 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.30     95.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    95.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    95.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     45.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     40.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     52.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.7  26.0  23.1  21.6  23.0  30.5  31.1  28.7  U  N  N  N  N  N  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   16.0  20.0  23.0  27.0  36.0  39.0  43.0  48.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Potential [kt]         38.0  39.8  47.4  51.5  39.8  45.5  57.9  47.4  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -16.0  -8.0   4.0  26.0  14.0  10.0  20.0  47.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   43.0  42.0  44.0  37.0  36.0  37.0  38.0  38.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   2.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.8%        0.3%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        0.3%        0.7%        0.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.3%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.24

 SH112023 230213 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.30     95.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    95.