Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH112023 230213 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.40     93.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     63.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     42.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     57.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.8  24.0  23.3  22.2  25.0  23.9  23.7  22.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   23.0  26.0  30.0  32.0  35.0  45.0  48.0  46.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         56.5  60.7  52.4  46.6  60.7  67.3  54.4  54.4  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    21.0  28.0  -1.0   5.0   6.0  30.0  47.0  38.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   38.0  35.0  35.0  39.0  37.0  36.0  39.0  42.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0  -6.0  -7.0  -4.0 -10.0  -5.0  -1.0  -1.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.7%        0.8%        1.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.7%        1.9%        1.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.7%        1.0%        0.8%
 35kt / 24h        0.7%        0.9%        0.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.7%        0.8%        0.8%
 45kt / 36h        1.9%        0.8%        1.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.42

 SH112023 230213 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.40     93.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.