Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH112023 230214 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.40     92.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     56.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     44.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     56.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.8  28.9  26.4  26.1  21.1  25.3  24.5  25.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   32.0  21.0  11.0   8.0  18.0  31.0  22.0  25.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         65.7  63.6  57.4  53.5  65.7  72.3  61.5  63.6  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -1.0 -17.0 -13.0  -8.0  20.0  29.0   8.0  11.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   35.0  37.0  37.0  40.0  39.0  43.0  42.0  50.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0   1.0   2.0   0.0   1.0   2.0   2.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.1%        1.1%        1.6%
 25kt / 24h        0.7%        1.9%        1.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.7%        1.0%        0.8%
 35kt / 24h        0.7%        0.9%        0.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.7%        0.9%        0.8%
 45kt / 36h        0.9%        0.8%        0.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.52

 SH112023 230214 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.40     92.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     56.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.8  28.9  26.4  26.1  21.1  25.3  24.5  25.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   35.0  37.0  37.0  40.0  39.0  43.0  42.0  50.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0   1.0   2.0   0.0   1.0   2.0   2.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        3.6%        1.8%