Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH112023 230214 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.40     91.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     75.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     56.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     65.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.4  26.2  25.3  26.9  24.9  26.6  25.3  31.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   15.0   7.0  10.0  17.0  31.0  24.0  24.0  24.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         59.4  51.6  57.4  63.6  72.3  63.6  61.5  63.6  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -4.0 -10.0  -6.0  14.0  28.0  15.0   3.0  34.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   36.0  36.0  35.0  35.0  35.0  39.0  44.0  45.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   4.0   1.0   2.0   1.0   4.0   5.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.0%        1.2%        1.6%
 25kt / 24h        0.7%        2.6%        1.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.7%        1.5%        1.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.7%        1.4%        1.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.7%        1.3%        1.0%
 45kt / 36h        1.4%        1.1%        1.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.50

 SH112023 230214 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.40     91.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     65.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.4  26.2  25.3  26.9  24.9  26.6  25.3  31.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   36.0  36.0  35.0  35.0  35.0  39.0  44.0  45.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   4.0   1.0   2.0   1.0   4.0   5.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        3.9%        1.9%